Tim Gulden

Research Assistant Professor

Center for Social Complexity

George Mason University

Timothy Gulden is a research assistant professor with the Center for Social Complexity in the Krasnow Institute for Advanced Study at George Mason University. He completed his PhD at the UMD School of Public Policy in December of 2004 with a dissertation entitled "Adaptive Agent Modeling in a Policy Context." He has been a visiting scholar at the Brookings Institution's Center on Social and Economic Dynamics (CSED), a research Scholar at the Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM) and attended the Santa Fe Institute's Complex Systems Summer School in 2002. From 1989 through 1999, he was the technical director of the GIS program for Westchester County, New York.

His major project at present seeks to apply agent-based modeling techniques to the development of deeper understanding of civil violence in East Africa. His research interests include agent-based modeling, complex systems, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), economic geography, civil conflict, sustainability, and globalization.

PUBLICATIONS:

“Global Metropolis: Assessing Economic Activity in Urban Centers Based on Nighttime Satellite Images”
with Richard Florida and Charlotta Mellander,
Forthcoming The Professional Geographer

“Beyond Zipf: an Agent-Based Understanding of City Size Distributions”
with Ross Hammond
in final preparation for inclusion as an invited chapter in Spatial Agent-based Models: Principles, Concepts and Applications, Michael Batty and Andrew Crooks, eds.
in preparation for submission to Environment and Planning B

“The Security Challenges of Climate Change: Who is at Risk and Why?”
in Matthias Ruth and María E. Ibarrarán (eds), Distributional Impacts of Climate Change and Disasters: Concepts and Cases, Cheltenham, UK and Northampton, MA, USA: Edward Elgar Publishing 2009

Critique of IFHS Violent Death Estimates
Letter to the Editor, New England Journal of Medicine
July 24, 2008

“The Rise of the Mega-region”
with Charlotta Mellander and Richard Florida
Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society 2008, 1, 459–476

“New Light on Urban Growth in the U.S. and E.U.”
with Selma Lewis, Gerrit Knaap, Casey Dawkins, and Chris Elvidge
Presented to the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, January 7, 2008
Under revision for Computers, Environment and Urban Systems

“Violence in Iraq is Beyond our Control”
with John Steinbruner, Op-Ed in The Baltimore Sun, Sept 10, 2007

“The Rise of the Megaregion”
with Richard Florida and Charlotta Mellander
Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society (accepted for publication)

“Adaptive Agent Modeling as a Tool for Trade and Development Theory”
Presented at 11th International Conference on Computing in Economics and Finance
Washington, DC June 23-25, 2005
Appeared as Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 paper #112.

“Integrating Environmental, Social and Economic Systems: A Dynamic Model of Tourism in Dominica”
with Trista Patterson, Egor Kraev, and Kenneth Cousins
Ecological Modeling, Volume 175, Issue 2, 1 July 2004, Pages 121-136

“The Normal, the Fat-Tailed, and the Contagious: Modeling Changes in Emerging Market Bond Spreads with Endogenous Liquidity”
with Paul Masson and Shubha Chakravarty, in M. Dungey and D. Tambakis, eds.,
Identifying International Financial Contagion: Progress and Challenges, Oxford University, 2005.

“The Role of Regulation in Moderating the Impact of International Capital Flows on the Environment: A Dynamic Modeling Perspective”
Invited paper presented October 23, 2002 at the New America Foundation, Washington, DC.

“Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Civil Violence in Guatemala, 1977-1986”
Politics and the Life Sciences, March 2002, 21:1
[Originally appeared February 2002 as Brookings Institution CSED Working Paper No. 26]


DISSERTATION:

Adaptive Agent Modeling in a Policy Context
University of Maryland School of Public Policy Dissertation
Defended December 2004



FUNDED RESEARCH (as PI):

A Volatile Mix: Violence as a Function of Community Ethic Composition
Principal Investigator: United States Institute of Peace Grant #USIP19207F
April 2008–November 2009